Economic data shapes what central banks do, so it moves currencies. The economic calendar lists every release.
●●●High impactRate decisions, NFP, CPI, GDP (advance)
●●○MediumPMIs, retail sales, jobless claims, PPI
●○○LowHousing data, minor surveys, speeches by junior officials
The heavy hitters
| Release | Measures | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | US jobs added; first Friday, 8:30 am ET | The most volatile regular release for USD and gold |
| CPI | Consumer inflation (watch core) | Drives rate expectations |
| Rate decisions | The policy rate + guidance | Direct currency driver |
| GDP | Total economic output | Confirms growth trends |
| PMI | Business surveys; 50 = expansion line | Early warning signal |
| Retail sales | Consumer spending | Consumers drive most economies |
Actual vs forecast
Markets move on the surprise: actual minus forecast. A "good" number that was expected can move nothing. A small miss can move a lot if nobody saw it coming. Watch revisions to the previous figure, too.
Wick says
Data releases are like exam results. If everyone expects an A and you get an A, nobody throws a party. Get a C, and it's drama.
Key takeaways
- NFP, CPI and rate decisions move markets most.
- Price reacts to the surprise, not the number itself.
- Check the calendar every morning.